The 30-Year Pandemic

A “Bright Swan” scenario of how humanity might cope with the lingering, mutating presence of Covid-19.

Photo by Jaromir Chalabala

Like black swan scenarios, these are unexpected events with extreme impact; coming from out of nowhere. More Bright Swan scenarios are available here.

Thank you to students in New York University’s Future of Media class, Summer 2021 (the Interactive Telecommunications Program), for elements of this scenario, adapted from their final presentations. The scenario began as an answer to the question: What would happen if the Covid-19 virus doesn’t go away?

In this future, COVID-19 lingers. It is 11 years old in 2030. Biomedical research is conducted at an exponentially increasing rate, but Covid mutates rapidly enough to outpace it. Variants proliferate not just among people, but through wild minks, deer, bats and pangolins — and some say among dogs, cats and rabbits. There are rumors of biowarfare labs releasing new variants regularly, each slightly more contagious than the last. Every cold-weather season leads to a new wave of deaths and hospitalizations. Many people fall prey to Long Covid, with its physical and mental decline.

Civilization responds ambivalently. Total lockdowns are unacceptable. Meeting people indoors is dangerous. Many people mistrust information from public…