The FINs That Roared

A “Bright Swan” scenario of how humanity might cope with the geopolitical conflict between authoritarian and democratic countries.

Like black swan scenarios, these are unexpected events with extreme impact; coming from out of nowhere. More Bright Swan scenarios are available here.

Thank you to students in New York University’s Future of Media class, Fall 2021 (the Interactive Telecommunications Program), for elements of this scenario, adapted from their final presentations. The scenario began as an answer to the question: What might happen if neither the US, China nor Europe could claim the moral high ground as global geopolitical leaders?

By the time the war in Ukraine ended in 2025, the United States was caught up in its own virtual civil war. Russia, China, and India were paralyzed by their leaders’ overreach. The world needed recovery from its years of pandemics, climate-related crisis, and war in Eastern Europe. As Carlota Perez had predicted, digital technologies and capital were ready to release a new global “golden age” — if leaders of business and government could come together and rebuild. But which leaders?

Ukraine itself, energetic and food-rich in the aftermath of conflict, hosted the first meeting of the Friendly Independent Nations (FINs). The first FINs were small but savvy sovereign states. Each brought skills…